Quantum computing is about to get its biggest reality check of 2026.
IonQ reports first-quarter results on Wednesday, May 6, after the close, while D-Wave Quantum follows on Tuesday, May 12, before the open.
The setup is unusually stark, as D-Wave is trading at $20.49 and IonQ at $46.63, but Wall Street’s optimism is much stronger for the smaller name, where the upside call is becoming harder to ignore.
D-Wave’s bull case is built on bookings
D-Wave is the stock drawing the loudest bullish case.
TipRanks shows a Strong Buy consensus on QBTS, with 13 Wall Street analysts and an average price target of $36.91, implying 80.13% upside from the current price.
That call rests on a simple argument: demand is finally starting to look real.
In its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 report, D-Wave said January bookings alone topped $30 million, and that first-quarter 2026 bookings had exceeded $32.8 million by Feb. 25.
Management also stated that FY2025 revenue increased 179% to $24.6 million, despite operating expenses rising 46% to $120.7 million.
There is also another catalyst, as D-Wave said it will host its first-ever Investor Day on June 1 at the New York Stock Exchange.
That matters because it gives bulls a second shot at the narrative if earnings disappoint, or if the market wants more proof that bookings can convert into revenue at a faster pace.
IonQ looks steadier, even if the upside is smaller
IonQ enters the same earnings window from a different position.
Live market data shows the stock at $46.63, with a market value of about $13.6 billion, compared with D-Wave’s roughly $7.0 billion.
TipRanks currently pegs IonQ’s average price target at $62.73, which implies 36.10% upside and comes with a Strong Buy consensus based on 12 analysts.
The near-term operating picture is also a little clearer.
TipRanks says Wall Street expects IonQ to report first-quarter revenue of $49.73 million, and notes that management has guided for revenue of $48 million to $51 million.
IonQ is often framed as the safer quantum name because the growth is aggressive, but the revenue base is larger and the path to the next quarter is easier to model.
Can D-Wave prove the market wrong?
The tension around QBTS is not whether the stock is cheap or expensive. It is whether the business can keep up with the valuation story.
Zacks currently rates D-Wave a Rank #5, or Strong Sell, citing near-term visibility concerns and rising expenses, while IonQ carries a Rank #3 Hold.
That split captures the debate as D-Wave has the bigger upside math, but also the sharper execution risk.
If the company misses on revenue conversion or offers cautious commentary next week, the 80% upside story could get pushed out quickly.
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